Data sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, World Economic Forum Future of Jobs 2025, Goldman Sachs, McKinsey Global Institute, O*NET, Brookings Institution, OECD
Everyone's asking "Will AI replace my job?" but the data is scattered across dozens of reports. This repo consolidates 102 occupations with risk scores, automation timelines, at-risk tasks, and growth projections — all in one place.
Want an interactive version? Try the free AI Job Risk Calculator — enter your job title and get a personalized risk report with safe skills and action plan.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Jobs at HIGH risk (>70%) | 28 |
| Jobs at MODERATE risk (40-70%) | 35 |
| Jobs at LOW risk (<40%) | 39 |
| U.S. workers in high-risk roles | ~9.3 million |
| Income at risk | $200B - $1.5T annually |
| Fastest displacement timeline | 2-3 years (data entry, telemarketing) |
| Rank | Occupation | Risk Score | Timeline | Key AI Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Data Entry Clerk | 96% | 2-3 years | OCR + LLMs automate extraction |
| 2 | Telemarketer | 95% | 2-3 years | AI voice agents + dialers |
| 3 | Bookkeeper | 92% | 3-4 years | AI accounting (QuickBooks AI, Bench) |
| 4 | Proofreader | 90% | 2-3 years | Grammarly, Claude, GPT-4 |
| 5 | Retail Cashier | 89% | 3-5 years | Self-checkout + Amazon Go |
| 6 | Tax Preparer | 88% | 3-4 years | TurboTax AI, automated filing |
| 7 | Insurance Underwriter | 86% | 3-5 years | AI risk models + automated decisions |
| 8 | Bank Teller | 85% | 3-4 years | Mobile banking + AI assistants |
| 9 | Transcriptionist | 84% | 1-2 years | Whisper, AssemblyAI, Otter.ai |
| 10 | Travel Agent | 82% | 3-5 years | AI trip planners, Google AI |
| 11 | Paralegal | 80% | 3-5 years | Legal AI (Harvey, CoCounsel) |
| 12 | Fast Food Cook | 78% | 4-6 years | Kitchen robotics + automation |
| 13 | Warehouse Worker | 77% | 3-5 years | Amazon robotics, Locus |
| 14 | Customer Service Rep | 76% | 2-4 years | AI chatbots + voice agents |
| 15 | Assembly Line Worker | 75% | 3-5 years | Industrial robotics + AI QC |
| 16 | Real Estate Appraiser | 74% | 4-6 years | AI valuation models (Zillow, HouseCanary) |
| 17 | Mail Carrier | 73% | 5-8 years | Drone delivery + digital mail |
| 18 | Loan Officer | 72% | 3-5 years | AI credit scoring + robo-lending |
| 19 | Claims Adjuster | 71% | 4-6 years | AI damage assessment + auto-processing |
| 20 | Stock Trader (floor) | 70% | 2-4 years | Algorithmic trading dominates |
| Rank | Occupation | Risk Score | Why It's Safe |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emergency Room Nurse | 8% | Physical care + split-second human judgment |
| 2 | Surgeon | 10% | Manual dexterity + liability + trust |
| 3 | Psychologist/Therapist | 12% | Human empathy + therapeutic alliance |
| 4 | Firefighter | 12% | Physical danger + unpredictable environments |
| 5 | Electrician | 14% | Physical work in varied environments |
| 6 | Plumber | 15% | Hands-on + problem solving in unique spaces |
| 7 | Kindergarten Teacher | 16% | Child development + emotional connection |
| 8 | Social Worker | 18% | Human relationships + complex judgment |
| 9 | Physical Therapist | 18% | Hands-on rehabilitation |
| 10 | Nurse Practitioner | 19% | Advanced clinical decisions + patient trust |
| 11 | Construction Manager | 20% | On-site coordination + physical oversight |
| 12 | Dental Hygienist | 22% | Physical procedures in mouth |
| 13 | Veterinarian | 22% | Animal handling + diverse diagnostics |
| 14 | Mechanical Engineer | 25% | Design creativity + physical testing |
| 15 | Occupational Therapist | 25% | Adaptive physical therapy |
| 16 | Police Officer | 26% | Public safety + judgment calls |
| 17 | Chef (fine dining) | 28% | Creativity + taste + presentation |
| 18 | HR Manager | 30% | People management + culture |
| 19 | Civil Engineer | 30% | Site-specific design + safety |
| 20 | Product Manager | 32% | Cross-functional leadership + strategy |
- Risk Score: 0-100% probability of significant AI displacement within 10 years
- Timeline: Estimated years until >50% of routine tasks are automated
- Trend:
↑risk increasing,→stable,↓risk decreasing (new demand emerging)
HIGH RISK (70-100%) — 28 occupations
| Occupation | Risk | Timeline | Trend | Primary AI Threat | Workforce Size (US) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Entry Clerk | 96% | 2-3 yr | ↑ | LLM + OCR automation | 152,000 |
| Telemarketer | 95% | 2-3 yr | ↑ | AI voice agents | 98,000 |
| Bookkeeper | 92% | 3-4 yr | ↑ | AI accounting software | 1,500,000 |
| Proofreader | 90% | 2-3 yr | ↑ | LLM grammar/style check | 68,000 |
| Retail Cashier | 89% | 3-5 yr | ↑ | Self-checkout automation | 3,340,000 |
| Tax Preparer | 88% | 3-4 yr | ↑ | Automated tax filing | 86,000 |
| Insurance Underwriter | 86% | 3-5 yr | ↑ | AI risk assessment models | 115,000 |
| Bank Teller | 85% | 3-4 yr | ↑ | Digital banking + chatbots | 405,000 |
| Transcriptionist | 84% | 1-2 yr | ↑ | Speech-to-text AI (Whisper) | 51,000 |
| Travel Agent | 82% | 3-5 yr | ↑ | AI trip planning | 58,000 |
| Paralegal | 80% | 3-5 yr | ↑ | Legal AI review tools | 345,000 |
| Fast Food Cook | 78% | 4-6 yr | ↑ | Kitchen robotics | 3,600,000 |
| Warehouse Worker | 77% | 3-5 yr | ↑ | Robotics + AI logistics | 1,800,000 |
| Customer Service Rep | 76% | 2-4 yr | ↑ | AI chatbots/voice agents | 2,900,000 |
| Assembly Line Worker | 75% | 3-5 yr | ↑ | Industrial robots + AI QC | 1,600,000 |
| Real Estate Appraiser | 74% | 4-6 yr | → | AI valuation (AVM) | 75,000 |
| Mail Carrier | 73% | 5-8 yr | → | Drone delivery + digital mail | 325,000 |
| Loan Officer | 72% | 3-5 yr | ↑ | AI credit scoring | 310,000 |
| Claims Adjuster | 71% | 4-6 yr | ↑ | AI damage assessment | 285,000 |
| Stock Trader (floor) | 70% | 2-4 yr | ↑ | Algorithmic trading | 42,000 |
| Medical Coder | 74% | 3-4 yr | ↑ | AI coding (3M, Nuance) | 350,000 |
| Receptionist | 72% | 3-5 yr | ↑ | Virtual receptionist AI | 985,000 |
| File Clerk | 90% | 2-3 yr | ↑ | Document management AI | 125,000 |
| Payroll Clerk | 82% | 3-4 yr | ↑ | Payroll automation (Gusto AI) | 140,000 |
| Credit Analyst | 70% | 3-5 yr | ↑ | AI credit models | 72,000 |
| Toll Booth Operator | 92% | 2-3 yr | ↑ | Electronic tolling | 7,000 |
| Typist | 95% | 1-2 yr | ↑ | Voice-to-text + LLMs | 38,000 |
| Meter Reader | 88% | 3-4 yr | ↑ | Smart meters + IoT | 28,000 |
MODERATE RISK (40-69%) — 35 occupations
| Occupation | Risk | Timeline | Trend | Primary AI Threat | Workforce Size (US) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graphic Designer | 65% | 3-5 yr | ↑ | Midjourney, DALL-E, Canva AI | 290,000 |
| Copywriter | 68% | 2-4 yr | ↑ | LLMs (ChatGPT, Claude) | 145,000 |
| Junior Software Developer | 60% | 3-5 yr | ↑ | Copilot, Cursor, Claude Code | 450,000 |
| Translator/Interpreter | 62% | 3-5 yr | ↑ | DeepL, Google Translate AI | 68,000 |
| Journalist (news) | 55% | 4-6 yr | ↑ | AI-generated news articles | 45,000 |
| Photographer | 52% | 4-6 yr | ↑ | AI-generated images | 145,000 |
| Financial Analyst | 58% | 4-6 yr | ↑ | AI financial modeling | 310,000 |
| Accountant (CPA) | 55% | 4-6 yr | → | AI audit + analytics | 1,450,000 |
| Market Research Analyst | 60% | 3-5 yr | ↑ | AI survey + data analysis | 790,000 |
| HR Recruiter | 52% | 3-5 yr | ↑ | AI screening + matching | 340,000 |
| Technical Writer | 62% | 3-4 yr | ↑ | LLM documentation generation | 52,000 |
| Real Estate Agent | 48% | 5-7 yr | → | AI property matching + virtual tours | 1,600,000 |
| Insurance Agent | 50% | 4-6 yr | → | Online comparison + AI | 520,000 |
| Pharmacist | 42% | 5-8 yr | → | Automated dispensing + AI checks | 325,000 |
| Truck Driver (long-haul) | 55% | 5-10 yr | → | Autonomous driving (Aurora, Kodiak) | 1,900,000 |
| Taxi/Rideshare Driver | 50% | 5-10 yr | → | Waymo, Cruise autonomous | 350,000 |
| Radiologist | 45% | 5-8 yr | → | AI image interpretation | 38,000 |
| Librarian | 48% | 5-7 yr | → | AI search + digital access | 143,000 |
| Executive Assistant | 55% | 3-5 yr | ↑ | AI scheduling + email management | 780,000 |
| Security Guard | 48% | 5-8 yr | → | AI surveillance + robotics | 1,150,000 |
| Retail Sales Associate | 52% | 4-6 yr | ↑ | E-commerce AI + chatbots | 4,300,000 |
| Quality Control Inspector | 55% | 4-6 yr | ↑ | Computer vision AI | 525,000 |
| Surveyor | 45% | 5-7 yr | → | Drone + LiDAR + AI mapping | 48,000 |
| Lab Technician | 42% | 5-8 yr | → | Automated lab equipment | 335,000 |
| Audio/Video Technician | 40% | 5-7 yr | → | AI editing tools | 85,000 |
| Purchasing Agent | 55% | 4-6 yr | ↑ | AI procurement platforms | 70,000 |
| Compliance Officer | 50% | 4-6 yr | → | AI regulatory monitoring | 345,000 |
| Medical Records Tech | 68% | 3-4 yr | ↑ | AI data extraction + EHR | 185,000 |
| Drafter (CAD) | 58% | 4-6 yr | ↑ | AI-assisted design tools | 82,000 |
| Welder | 42% | 5-8 yr | → | Welding robots | 410,000 |
| Dispatcher | 60% | 3-5 yr | ↑ | AI routing + scheduling | 215,000 |
| Property Manager | 45% | 5-7 yr | → | AI tenant management | 385,000 |
| Marketing Manager | 42% | 5-7 yr | → | AI ad optimization + content | 310,000 |
| Interior Designer | 45% | 5-7 yr | → | AI design tools (Midjourney) | 85,000 |
| Music Producer | 40% | 5-8 yr | → | AI music generation (Suno, Udio) | 55,000 |
LOW RISK (0-39%) — 39 occupations
| Occupation | Risk | Timeline | Trend | Why It's Safer | Workforce Size (US) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emergency Room Nurse | 8% | 15+ yr | ↓ | Physical care + critical judgment | 3,100,000 |
| Surgeon | 10% | 15+ yr | ↓ | Manual precision + liability | 45,000 |
| Psychologist | 12% | 15+ yr | ↓ | Therapeutic alliance + empathy | 192,000 |
| Firefighter | 12% | 15+ yr | ↓ | Physical danger + unpredictability | 330,000 |
| Electrician | 14% | 15+ yr | ↓ | Varied physical environments | 740,000 |
| Plumber | 15% | 15+ yr | ↓ | Hands-on problem solving | 490,000 |
| Kindergarten Teacher | 16% | 15+ yr | ↓ | Child development + nurturing | 155,000 |
| Social Worker | 18% | 15+ yr | ↓ | Complex human relationships | 715,000 |
| Physical Therapist | 18% | 15+ yr | ↓ | Hands-on rehabilitation | 260,000 |
| Nurse Practitioner | 19% | 15+ yr | ↓ | Advanced clinical + patient trust | 355,000 |
| Construction Manager | 20% | 12+ yr | → | On-site oversight + coordination | 480,000 |
| Dental Hygienist | 22% | 12+ yr | → | Physical procedures | 230,000 |
| Veterinarian | 22% | 12+ yr | ↓ | Animal handling + diagnostics | 85,000 |
| Mechanical Engineer | 25% | 10+ yr | → | Design creativity + testing | 285,000 |
| Occupational Therapist | 25% | 12+ yr | ↓ | Adaptive physical therapy | 145,000 |
| Police Officer | 26% | 12+ yr | → | Public safety + judgment | 665,000 |
| Chef (fine dining) | 28% | 10+ yr | → | Creativity + taste + art | 165,000 |
| HR Manager | 30% | 8+ yr | → | People management + culture | 190,000 |
| Civil Engineer | 30% | 10+ yr | → | Site-specific + safety critical | 320,000 |
| Product Manager | 32% | 8+ yr | → | Cross-functional leadership | 285,000 |
| Senior Software Engineer | 28% | 10+ yr | → | Architecture + complex systems | 320,000 |
| Data Scientist | 35% | 7+ yr | → | AI builds AI, but needs oversight | 195,000 |
| UX Researcher | 35% | 8+ yr | → | Human insight + behavior analysis | 45,000 |
| CEO/Executive | 25% | 15+ yr | → | Strategy + leadership + networking | 290,000 |
| Sales Executive (B2B) | 30% | 8+ yr | → | Relationship-driven complex sales | 410,000 |
| Nurse Anesthetist | 15% | 15+ yr | ↓ | Critical patient safety | 45,000 |
| Speech Therapist | 20% | 12+ yr | ↓ | Physical + communication therapy | 165,000 |
| Midwife | 12% | 15+ yr | ↓ | Intimate care + emergencies | 8,000 |
| Athletic Trainer | 22% | 12+ yr | → | Physical assessment + rehab | 35,000 |
| Architect | 32% | 8+ yr | → | Creative vision + client relations | 120,000 |
| Art Director | 35% | 7+ yr | → | Creative direction + brand vision | 95,000 |
| School Principal | 18% | 15+ yr | ↓ | Community leadership + education | 130,000 |
| Judge | 15% | 15+ yr | ↓ | Legal judgment + authority | 45,000 |
| Clergy/Minister | 10% | 15+ yr | ↓ | Spiritual guidance + community | 65,000 |
| Airline Pilot | 22% | 10+ yr | → | Safety-critical + regulation | 95,000 |
| HVAC Technician | 18% | 15+ yr | ↓ | Physical installation + repair | 395,000 |
| Automotive Mechanic | 25% | 10+ yr | → | Diagnostics going AI, hands-on stays | 750,000 |
| Landscape Architect | 28% | 10+ yr | → | Site-specific + aesthetic vision | 25,000 |
| Robotics Engineer | 15% | 15+ yr | ↓ | Building the automation itself | 35,000 |
| Industry | Avg Risk | Most At-Risk Role | Safest Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finance & Banking | 68% | Tax Preparer (88%) | CEO/Executive (25%) |
| Healthcare | 22% | Medical Coder (74%) | Surgeon (10%) |
| Legal | 55% | Paralegal (80%) | Judge (15%) |
| Technology | 38% | Data Entry (96%) | Robotics Engineer (15%) |
| Education | 20% | Librarian (48%) | Kindergarten Teacher (16%) |
| Retail | 65% | Cashier (89%) | Regional Manager (30%) |
| Transportation | 52% | Toll Booth Operator (92%) | Airline Pilot (22%) |
| Creative/Media | 48% | Copywriter (68%) | Art Director (35%) |
| Construction | 22% | Drafter/CAD (58%) | Electrician (14%) |
| Food Service | 52% | Fast Food Cook (78%) | Fine Dining Chef (28%) |
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Physical + judgment = safe. The safest jobs combine hands-on physical work with complex human judgment. Pure cognitive tasks are most at risk.
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The "AI-proof" skills: empathy, physical dexterity, creative vision, crisis management, complex negotiation, ethical judgment.
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~9.3 million U.S. workers are in high-risk occupations (70%+ automation risk). Source: NBER 2025.
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Women face 2x the risk: 4.7% exposure for women vs 2.4% for men, largely due to concentration in clerical roles. Source: Brookings 2025.
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Education is protective: 22% risk for workers without degrees vs 2% for university graduates. Source: OECD.
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Healthcare is the safest sector overall — AI augments rather than replaces. Nurse practitioners projected to grow 52% by 2033. Source: BLS.
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Timeline acceleration: Goldman Sachs estimates significant displacement within 5-7 years, not 10-15 as previously projected.
- Agentic AI (OpenClaw, Claude, multi-step agents) is accelerating displacement of knowledge workers faster than physical workers
- Voice AI agents are replacing call center workers 2-3x faster than expected
- AI coding tools (Copilot, Cursor, Claude Code) are shifting junior developer roles but INCREASING senior developer demand
- Creative AI (Midjourney v7, Suno v5, Sora) is disrupting entry-level creative roles while creating new categories
- Assess your actual exposure — Use the AI Job Risk Calculator for a personalized breakdown
- Identify your "AI-proof" tasks — Which parts of your job require physical presence, human judgment, or emotional intelligence?
- Start learning AI tools — The workers who survive aren't those who avoid AI, but those who master it
- Upskill into AI-adjacent roles — Prompt engineering, AI oversight, AI training, data curation
- Move up the value chain — Shift from execution to strategy, from individual contribution to management
- Build domain expertise — AI is general; deep industry knowledge + AI skills = irreplaceable
- Free AI Prompt Generator — Start learning to work with AI
- AI Prompt Enhancer — Upgrade your AI communication skills
- AI Income Blueprint — Find AI-powered side hustles matching your skills
Risk scores are composite estimates based on:
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Task automation potential (40% weight) — What % of routine tasks in this occupation can current AI handle? Based on O*NET task databases and AI capability assessments.
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Historical displacement data (20% weight) — How quickly have similar roles been automated in the past? BLS employment projections 2023-2033.
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AI capability trajectory (20% weight) — How fast is AI improving in the specific capabilities this job requires? Based on AI benchmark trends.
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Structural barriers (20% weight) — Licensing, regulation, liability, physical requirements, and social acceptance factors that slow automation even when technically possible.
Limitations: These are estimates, not predictions. Actual displacement depends on economic conditions, regulation, AI development pace, and industry adoption rates. Scores reflect 10-year risk windows.
Found an error? Have data for a job not listed? PRs welcome.
- Fork this repo
- Add your occupation data with sources
- Submit a PR with your reasoning
Don't just read data — get personalized results:
- AI Job Risk Calculator — Enter your job, get a detailed risk report with safe skills, action plan, and timeline
- AI Income Blueprint Quiz — Discover your "AI Founder Archetype" and matched AI side hustles
- Free AI Prompt Generator — Start working with AI today (8 categories, instant prompts)
- Karpathy's Jobs — Andrej Karpathy's BLS occupation exposure analysis with interactive treemap (342 occupations, 0-10 exposure score)
- EIG AI Unemployment Research — Economic Innovation Group's estimates of AI impact on employment
- AI Prompt Cheat Sheet — 200+ copy-paste prompts to start working with AI today
How this repo differs: Karpathy's analysis uses a single AI Exposure axis. This database adds actionable context: displacement timelines, specific AI threats per job, workforce sizes, safe skills, and an action plan. Designed for workers, not researchers.
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Projections
- BLS — AI Impacts in Employment Projections (2025)
- World Economic Forum — Future of Jobs Report 2025
- Goldman Sachs — The Potentially Large Effects of AI on Economic Growth
- McKinsey Global Institute — A New Future of Work (2024)
- Brookings Institution — AI & Worker Displacement
- OECD — AI and the Labour Market
- NBER — Occupational AI Exposure Analysis (2025)
- O*NET — Occupational Information Network
MIT License. Data is compiled from public sources. See individual citations for original data terms.
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