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estimize
Estimize is an open financial estimates platform which facilitates the aggregation of fundamental estimates from independent, buy-side, and sell-side analysts, along with those of private investors and students. By sourcing estimates from a diverse community of individuals, Estimize provides both a more accurate and more representative view of expectations compared to sell side only data sets which suffer from several severe biases.
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###Estimize
####Overview:
Estimize is an open financial estimates platform which helps to aggregate fundamental estimates from buy-side, sell-side analysts, investors and students. Under the crowdsourcing system, 12,738 analysts are contributing.
Estimize generates the consensus earnings estimates from a community of its members. Its predictive analytics system also calculates the accuracy of individual estimates with confidence scores. Estimize is also part of BenZinga's Playground Datasets which serves as a platform for external and niche data providers.
Company website: estimize.com
####Types of Featured Data:
- Equity (free-access):
- Earnings and revenue estimates
- Equities are categorized by sectors
- Economics (free-access):
- Estimates on economic indicators
- Examples: housing, employment, CPI, etc.
- Their API database provides more detailed data for analytics:
- Equity and economics: Estimize estimates and Wall Street consensus in addition to the data available from free databases aforementioned.
- Equity screener
####Review on Estimize:
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Uncertainty of Estimize estimates
- Our analysis from Estimize has shown that the range of EPS forecasted is much larger compared to Wall Street consensus.
- More examples can be viewed here.
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Wisdom of the crowd?
- Everyone can contribute to the pool of estimates regardless of the qualification. The community is split broadly among individual investors, buy-side and sell-side professionals.
- However, the estimates can be more independent than brokers, considering the potential conflicts of interests faced by analysts.
- The company is newly established in 2011, will their methodology sustain throughout economic cycles?
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Research results from Deutsche Bank
- They did a statistical research on Estimize and Wall Street consensus (IBES).
- Majority of Estimize forecasts are keyed in one week or a few days before the earnings announced rather than several weeks ahead by Wall Street analysts. The timeliness is a major reason why Estimize is more accurate 2/3 of the time when stocks are covered by more than 20 community analysts.
- Performance comparison:
- As the time gets closer to the announcement date and more analysts cover the stock, Estimize forecasts become more accurate.
- One day or one week before the announcement: Estimaize outperforms; one month before the announcement: Wall Street consensus outperforms.
- In Estimize, buy-side estimates are more accurate than the sell-side. However, IBES error rate is smaller than sell-side analysts from Estimize. This underlines more experienced analysts do not contribute to Estimize.
- The reasons above also partly explain why Estimate non-professionals have better estimates than professionals.
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Short-term trading strategies based on Estimize estimates do generate positive alpha. Due to the diversity of views, it also appears to be a better market sentiment indicator reflected by the post earning trading results.
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Lastly, because of the timeliness and diversity, the estimates in the Estimize system may represent a distinct alternative to the Wall Street consensus.
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More white paper results can be viewed here.
####Data Access:
- APIs can be used to request the data.
- API requests should be made to http://api.estimize.com/.
- You must supply your API key in the HTTP header X"Estimize"Key.
- More details can be requested here.
####Data Formats:
- Estimize supports the JSON format.
####Reference:
- Data Agreement
- Product Development Pipeline
Estimize